Polls: Clinton, Trump General Election a Toss-up

By: Lorin McLain

Public perception is all over the place for the 2016 presidential election. Poll numbers reported this week show presumptive GOP candidate Donald Trump and Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton in a statistical tie. This week’s average of the top five polls by Real Clear Politics shows Clinton leading Trump by 43.8 percent to 42.3 percent.

Throughout March and April, Clinton led Trump by double digits in 10 out of 14 of major polls according to CNN. Many analysts suspect the shift in perception is because Trump has already sealed the deal in the GOP primary, while Clinton is still fighting tooth-and-nail with Senator Bernie Sanders to wrap up the Democratic nomination. Fortunately for voters suffering from primary fatigue, many believe this should all be over next week.

Tuesday, June 7th is the final ‘Super Tuesday’ in this year’s election cycle, with only the District of Columbia remaining on June 14th. California has the motherlode of delegates among the six states holding primaries, with 475 at stake. According to Real Clear Politics, Clinton currently has 1769 pledged delegates out of 2,382 needed to win, while Sanders has 1,501. With superdelegates factored in, Clinton’s lead jumps to 2313 to Sanders’ 1546.

The latest poll number average from Real Clear Politics among Democratic voters in California show Clinton favored by 49.3 percent to 43.3 percent. But some polls put them both in a dead heat. California is not a winner-take-all state, with delegates awarded proportionately to the candidates. Sanders, however, is vowing to carry his fight all the way to the Democratic convention this summer, even if Clinton sweeps California and the next largest state, New Jersey, on Tuesday. Sanders says he’s banking he can win the support of many superdelegates who don’t vote until they’re on the floor of the convention.

Regardless what happens with the Democrats, the key to both major campaigns will be to sway voters who are still undecided, opting to vote for a third party candidate, or giving up and just staying home on election day. The average from the top five polls says one in eight registered voters currently aren’t backing either Clinton or Trump – with as much as 18% saying they would vote for a third party candidate. Clinton has a narrow lead in the most recent RCP poll in the key battle ground states of Florida and Ohio, and a six-point lead in the battleground state of Pennsylvania.