Poll Shows Arpaio Unfavorable Among Maricopa County Voters

(Featured Photo: Gage Skidmore/Flickr)

By Lorin McLain

A new poll suggests Sheriff Joe Arpaio is losing popularity among Arizonans, but is it still highly unlikely he’ll lose reelection in November? An Arizona Republic/Morrison/Cronkite News poll shows 57 percent of Maricopa County respondents have an unfavorable view of the sheriff.  It’s the first poll taken since a federal judge referred a racial profiling case to the Department of Justice for Arapaio and his aides to face criminal prosecution.

The opinion poll, however, is in steep contrast to official primary election results that show Arpaio beating his opponents by a vast majority, with a total of more than 65 percent of the vote. Former Buckeye Police Chief Dan Saban was the closest challenger to Arpaio with just under 27 percent. The other two primary challengers were in the single digits.

This November, Arpaio again faces his 2012 Democratic challenger, former police sergeant Paul Penzone. Penzone lost to Arpaio then by about six percent of the vote, roughly 50 to 44 percent. This year looks much closer. A poll taken in July by Tempe-based Republican political firm Lincoln Strategy Group showed Arpaio trailing Penzone 45 to 42 percent. A poll taken in the beginning of August by OH Predictive Insights showed Arpaio with a slight edge, but in a virtual tie with a five-point margin of error.

The latest poll taken during the last two weeks of August surveyed 468 registered voters in Maricopa County and has a margin of error of 4.8 percent. Arapaio polled lower among women and college-educated voters and, not surprisingly, was extremely unpopular with Democrats, Hispanics, and younger voters. Among Maricopa County voters, about 30 percent of respondents found Arpaio extremely unfavorable; while somewhere close to 15 percent found him very favorable. Much of the outcome will depend on how much the anti-Arpaio voting base is able to mobilize turnout in November.

Analysts say Penzone needs to win over a vast majority of independents and some Republicans. Arpaio has a considerable funding advantage, as The Arizona Republic reported the Republican sheriff having $4-million dollars available in campaign funding, while Penzone had less than $150,000.