Latino Millennials Eligible to Vote on the Rise, But Less Likely to Show Up at the Polls

By: Lorin McLain

The number of eligible voters among Hispanics is surging in states like Arizona, and the fastest growing demographic appears to be the one statistically shown to be the least engaged – millennials. A new report from the Pew Research Center says millennials will make up close to half the number of Hispanic voters this election year, certainly a statistic that demands the attention of either major party. But it poses a pretty significant challenge.

The Pew report shows the percentage of Hispanics born in 1981 or later who are eligible to vote has surged from 37 percent in 2012 to 44 percent of the record 27.3 eligible Latino voters projected for this year’s election. That’s a greater percentage of their electorate than the voting pools of any other ethnic group. Most of the growth comes from U.S. -born citizens who have reached the voting age of 18.

This could be statistically significant in key battleground states like Florida, Colorado, and Nevada. In traditionally red state Arizona, the rapidly changing demographics stand out. Hispanics have voted heavily Democrat in recent elections. The Pew report says they voted Democrat over Republican in 2014 congressional races by 62 to 36 percent. Democratic strategists say Donald Trump’s comments about Hispanics since declaring his candidacy could make those numbers even lower, highlighted even further with his recent endorsement by controversial Sheriff Joe Arpaio.

Still, the task of drawing millennials to the ballot box appears daunting, especially among Hispanics. Voter turnout among Latinos is the lowest of any racial group. Pew statistics show only 37 percent of eligible Latino millennials voted in 2012. Black and white millennial voters were at least ten percent higher. This could significantly change as more U.S. born Latinos turn 18. Specifically, 3.2 million projected this year, according to the Pew report.

Arizona’s Republican party is feeling an urgency to reach out to the Hispanic community. “We’re starting to see a trend that the state is turning purple,” says Sergio Arellano, engagement director for the Arizona Republican Party. Arellano says he thinks Hispanics are less engaged at the polls because of a lack of outreach from politicians. “We were buying into the narrative that Hispanic districts were all Democrat. Then we came to the realization that they (Democrats) weren’t even there,” he says. Arellano says the past few years, the Arizona GOP has made a concerted effort to reach out to people at community events in districts normally written off to swing Democrat. He says the effort in the 2014 election succeeded in their candidate winning a state House seat in heavy Democrat district two and a four percent increase in voter turnout state wide.