Leaning Blue – Arizona Now a Battleground State in the General Election

By: Jessica Lizza

Cronkite Special to AZLatinos.com

Arizona is typically known as a red conservative state, having only elected a Democrat twice – once in 1948 with Henry S. Truman, and again in 1996 with Bill Clinton. However, according to recent polls, Arizona is leaning more toward the liberal side of the political spectrum.]

Joseph Garcia, Director of Communication & Community Impact at the Morrison Institute of Public Policy, said, “Arizona is more of a purple state than a red conservative state.” As he referenced the recent results of a poll conducted by Morrison Institute for Public Policy, The Arizona Republic and Cronkite news. There is a lot of speculation about why this is happening in Arizona, and Garcia states the number of Hispanic voters who are coming of age might be the reason for the shift.

The poll was conducted after the second debate between Donald Trump and Hilary Clinton. For the poll, there were 811 valid responses out of the 1200 calls that were made. The poll was conducted on a group of registered voters in both English and Spanish.

What was once thought a sure win for a Republican nominee is now a very key player in the race to the White House. Thom Reilly, director of Morrison Institute for Public Policy at ASU, stated in an article that explained the polling results on the Morrison website, that, “Even as core supporters of either Trump or Clinton remain firmly in place, the poll shows movement that is keeping Arizona in play.” According to Garcia, the young Hispanic voters may be the cause of this.

Garcia said that “a greater percentage is saying they are going to vote for Hilary Clinton, a democrat.” And Morrison believes there are two possible reasons, one of which Garcia said, “the larger number of new voters who are largely Latinos.” Reina Romero, a 24-year-old stocker at Tommy Hilfiger, is registered as a Democrat and stated something similar. While she is currently undecided, she is leaning toward voting for Clinton because she was a Bernie Sanders supporter.  Romero said, “If Hillary was to win, then Bernie would possibly be in charge of the government spending.”

The poll shows that the question, ‘who are you planning to vote for’ by ‘racial background,’ yield a larger amount of individuals that identify as Hispanic who are voting for Clinton. The numbers show 32 percent voting for Clinton with a 8.7 percent error margin for compared to Trump’s 25.6 with an 11.4 percent error margin. The largest group was in the ‘haven’t decided’ section with 36.9 and a 9.3 percent error margin.

In a later question, ‘who are you planning to vote for, or who are you leaning toward’ asked based on ‘racial background’ – it found that Clinton was again holding the majority. Out of the 82 people that identified as Hispanic asked, 25.6 planned on voting for Trump with an 11.4 percent error margin. For Clinton, 35.3 planned to vote for her with an 8.6 percent error margin. The ‘haven’t decided’ group fell to a 12.3 with an 8.3 percent error margin. This later question exemplifies Garcias’ comment that, “the undecided have moved toward Hillary.”

Jordan White, a 22-year-old graduate student at NAU and independent voter said that while she is currently undecided she is also leaning more towards Clinton, solidifying the poll results. She said, “Honestly, I’m not a Hilary fan and I’m not a tax fan. But, I don’t think Trump would be a good representation of what our country stands for.”