Oscar Predictions: Iñárritu Poised to Make History; ‘The Revenant’ Leads Four-Way Race for Best Picture

By Anthony Hernandez

Ever since I started following the Oscar race (in 2000, when Gladiator won) and predicting who will take home the big prizes of the night, it’s always been about one thing: finding that winning narrative. A few years back, when Argo took home Best Picture, the narrative was all about giving Ben Affleck his due because he was inexplicably shut out of the Best Director category. In 2009, when The Hurt Locker won, the narrative predicted a split between Best Director for Katherine Bigelow (the first, and only woman to win in this category) and Best Picture for the biggest moneymaker of all time, Avatar. But then the narrative shifted at the last minute, and The Hurt Locker prevailed.

This year, the narrative has been all over the place. Earlier in the season, it appeared that Spotlight would be the one to beat. It had universal acclaim across the board, no one hated it, no one could deny its importance, and it would make an excellent Best Picture winner. Then, the focus shifted away from that “little movie” to the juggernaut that is Mad Max: Fury Road – an unconventional film for the Academy, but one that was soon picking up nominations in every category in every precursor. Plus, given that director George Miller is well liked and respected in the industry, it seemed that his triumph (one of the best directorial achievements of the year) would propel the film to win big at the Oscars.

Then, the Guilds happened. The Big Short won the Producer’s Guild Award for best film of the year – and why not? It’s a masterpiece about money and greed (and quite possibly the best film of the year, in my opinion). The PGA, with the same preferential voting method as the Academy, has been the top predictor of a Best Picture win at the Oscars for many years now. But then it all changed again. Spotlight won Best Ensemble at the Screen Actor’s Guild Awards – propelling it back into the front-runner status. The SAG has the largest voting membership, and the actor’s branch has the largest voting membership in the Academy. Spotlight was the one to beat.

One week later, the Director’s Guild did something they’ve never done before. Alejandro González Iñárritu became the first director to receive back-to-back wins at the DGA; an incredible feat that – coupled with his film’s 12 Oscar nominations (the most this year) and Leonardo DiCaprio’s inevitable Best Actor Oscar win – propelled The Revenant into late-bloomer frontrunner status. And now, nearly every pundit has it winning the big prize at Sunday’s ceremony.

In my years watching, predicting, and stewing over the Oscars – it has never been a race like this. It was always one film that could not be stopped, or a two-way race between equally deserving films… never has it been a four-way race to the finish. Any of these films – Spotlight, The Big Short, Mad Max: Fury Road, or The Revenant would be a deserving Best Picture winner. Following the stats seems to be a moot point this year. Technically, The Big Short is the one to beat; but The Revenant has such a strong showing in the nominations + Leo + an unexpected nomination for Tom Hardy + Iñárritu’s history making win at the DGA + an extremely difficult filming process + that bear scene… all of that has shifted the narrative to a late-game-changing win for The Revenant. In fact, it is likely the film will win at least half of its 12 nominations. And if Iñárritu and The Revenant win Best Director and Best Picture respectively, it will be the first time in Academy Award history that a director and his picture have won back-to-back awards (last year it was Iñárritu’s Birdman that won).

Spotlight and The Big Short could (inevitably) leave with just one award each for Best Original and Adapted Screenplays respectively. Mad Max will probably dominate the tech categories, winning Editing, Makeup, and maybe Visual Effects (Star Wars: The Force Awakens should win that one) and one of the Sound awards – but it has to beat The Revenant in each of those categories, so it’s going to be uphill climb. But the stats… those darn stats. You just can’t bet against them. And that means a win for The Big Short – and what a win that would be!

There is so much more that could be discussed here – more stats, nitpicking, prognostication, and a little bit of personal bias toward one film or another; but in the end, nobody really knows anything. That being said, here are this year’s Oscar predictions for the major categories:

BEST PICTURE:

Could Win: Spotlight, The Big Short, Mad Max: Fury Road

Will Win: The Revenant 

Personal Favorite: The Big Short 

BEST DIRECTOR:

Could Win: George Miller – Mad Max: Fury Road 

Will Win: Alejandro González Iñárritu – The Revenant

Personal Favorite: Alejandro González Iñárritu – The Revenant

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:

Leonardo. DiCaprio. There is no other performance by an actor in a leading role this year that is more deserving of an Oscar than his. If, by some sick joke, he doesn’t win – I have no idea who would even take his place.

Could Win: Nobody else. Maybe Brian Cranston for Trumbo…?

Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant

Personal Favorite: Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:

Brie Larson has been winning most of the precursors and is considered the favorite to win for her incredible work in Room. But many, including myself, believe that Saoirse Ronan could spoil here for her heartbreakingly beautiful performance in Brooklyn – and rightfully so.

Could Win: Saoirse Ronan – Brooklyn

Will Win: Brie Larson – Room

Personal Favorite: Saoirse Ronan – Brooklyn

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:

Tom Hardy’s surprise nomination, coupled with The Revenant’s frontrunner status, could propel him to a win. Not to mention he’s also the titular character in Fury Road, so that could be enough for an upset. Right now it seems that no one can beat Sylvester Stallone for his role in Creed, but the Academy may not be ready to award him this prize and may give it to the deserving Mark Rylance for his nuanced performance in Bride of Spies.

Could Win: Tom Hardy – The Revenant – or – Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies

Will Win: Sylvester Stallone – Creed

Personal Favorite: Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies 

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:

Alicia Vikander is in two Oscar nominated films this year: the mediocre The Danish Girl – for which she is nominated, and the incredible Ex Machina – for which she SHOULD have been nominated. That being beside the point, she is the frontrunner in this category; but don’t discount Kate Winslet for her fantastic performance in Steve Jobs. She could pull an upset, especially if Academy members want to see Leo and Kate onstage together as winners. Personally, I would love to see Rooney Mara win for her flawless performance in Carol, but that is highly unlikely.

Could Win: Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs

Will Win: Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl 

Personal Favorite: Rooney Mara – Carol

Catch the 88th Academy Awards, presented by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, this Sunday, February 28 at 5:30PM on ABC – hosted by Chris Rock. It’s the tightest race in over a decade and there are sure to be some surprises – you don’t want to miss this!