Pew: More Latinos Voting, But Turnout Still Lags

A record 11.2 million Latinos voted in the 2012 presidential election, but Latinos’ voter turnout rate continues to lag other groups significantly, according to an analysis of new Census Bureau data by the Pew Research Center.

Overall, 48 percent of Hispanic eligible voters turned out to vote in 2012, down from 49.9 percent in 2008. By comparison, the 2012 voter turnout rate among blacks was 66.6 percent and among whites was 64.1 percent, both significantly higher than the turnout rate among Hispanics.

Rapid growth of the nation’s Latino population has fueled quick growth in the number of Latinos eligible to vote (U.S. citizen adults). Between 2008 and 2012, the number of Latino eligible voters grew from 19.5 million to 23.3 million—an increase of 19 percent. By contrast, the number of Latino voters increased by 15 percent over 2008. With the number of Latino voters growing more slowly than the number of Latino eligible voters, the Latino voter turnout rate declined between 2008 and 2012—despite a record turnout.

The Pew Research analysis also finds that the Hispanic voter turnout rate declined for nearly all major Hispanic demographic subgroups with the exception of three. The voter turnout rate of naturalized Hispanic immigrants who arrived in the 1990s increased from 41.2 percent in 2008 to 47.2 percent in 2012. Among Hispanics ages 65 and older, the voter turnout rate increased from 56 percent in 2008 to 59.9 percent in 2012, mirroring a similar increase among all eligible voters ages 65 and older. And among Hispanic origin groups, the voter turnout rate of Puerto Ricans increased from 49.7 percent in 2008 to 52.8 percent in 2012.

The analysis also finds that voter turnout rates differed widely among Latino demographic subgroups. In 2012, the highest voter turnout rates were among those with a college degree (70.8 percent) and among Cuban-origin Latinos (67.2 percent). Meanwhile, the lowest were among those ages 18 to 29 (36.9 percent) and those with less than a high school diploma (35.5 percent).

Latinos were also a larger share of the nation’s electorate in 2012, making up a record 8.4 percent of all voters, up from 7.4 percent in 2008. However, while 11.2 million Latinos voted in 2012, an even greater number—12.1 million—chose not to vote even though they were eligible to do so. Overall, among the nation’s 82.1 million nonvoters in 2012, 15 percent were Latinos.

Much of the growth in the number of Latino eligible voters was driven by Latino youth. Among the 3.8 million Latinos who became eligible to vote between 2008 and 2012, 3.7 million were U.S.-born young Hispanics who entered adulthood. Annually, about 800,000 U.S.-born young Hispanics come of age, making them newly eligible to vote (Taylor, Gonzalez-Barrera, Passel and Lopez, 2012).

The number of Hispanics who say they were registered to vote in 2012 reached 13.7 million, up 18 percent over 2008. That was also a record. However, the voter turnout rate among Hispanic registered voters was lower in 2012 than in 2008—81.7 percent versus 84 percent.

Overall, Hispanics made up 17.2 percent of the nation’s population in 2012, 10.8 percent of eligible voters, but just 8.4 percent of all voters. Much of this difference is driven by the relative youth of the nation’s Hispanic population and the high number of non-citizen adults among its population (Taylor, Gonzalez-Barrera, Passel and Lopez, 2012). Just 43.9 percent of Hispanics are eligible to vote while more than half (51.7 percent) of Asians, 69.1 percent of blacks and 78.6 percent of whites are eligible to vote.

In 2012, Latinos supported Barack Obama over Mitt Romney by a margin of 71 percent to 27 percent  (Lopez and Taylor, 2012) and were an important part of the coalition that re-elected the president. As the electorate diversifies – with Latinos accounting for much of that change – the importance of the Latino vote will likely grow (Taylor, 2013).